Future of cities

Inga Björk-Klevby, Assistant Secretary General, United Nations; Deputy Executive Director, UN-HABITAT

Before the other panelists speak on the future of cities, I would like to spend a few moments to speak about the state of the world's cities today. How are cities performing on the Millennium Development Goals and targets? Are they sites of inclusion or exclusion? Do they foster hope or despair? And how far have governments come in improving the lives of slum dwellers?

The reality is that cities offer both an optimistic and pessimistic picture. People living in urban areas generally perform well on a range of development indicators. But if not managed properly, cities can also be sites of intense deprivation, pollution and exclusion. UN-HABITAT's State of the World's Cities Report 2006/7 launched at this session of the World Urban Forum presents some interesting findings. I will summarise some of the main findings of the Report, some of which will surprise the most die­hard optimists and some of which may confirm some of the most pessimistic urban forecasts.

The good news is that cities make countries rich. They are drivers of national economies. They produce a disproportionate bulk of GDP and offer huge opportunities for investment and employment. They are centres of culture and innovation, and despite the information revolution which has made physical location irrelevant, continue to attract more and more people. In other words, there is an irrefutable link between urbanization and human development.

The bad news is that urbanization does not automatically lead to better social outcomes. Cities with the most rapid growth rates are currently in developing countries. These are also cities where slum growth rates are the highest. For instance, sub-Saharan Africa, the most rapidly urbanizing region, has slum and urban growth rates of over 4.5 per cent. Asia already houses half the world's slum population. This means that the locus of poverty has already started to shift to urban areas. Urbanization and economic growth have not resulted in prosperity for all. In fact, inequalities within cities are rising, and levels of urban poverty in several countries now equal levels of rural poverty. This means that as the developing world becomes more urbanized, poverty reduction efforts will have to be focused on their cities.

For a long time we at UN-HABITAT had suspected that the optimistic picture presented of urban areas in terms of human development indicators did not reflect the reality on the ground. The State of the World's Cities Report clearly shows that there are two cities within one city - one part that has all the benefits of urban living and the other part that lives in dehumanizing conditions in slums with little access to basic services, poor quality housing and fewer educational and other opportunities. Some regions have worse slums than others. Our analysis shows that slums in sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia suffer from more deprivations than slums in regions such as Northern Africa.

The most innovative aspect of this report is that it presents for the first time data at the urban slum and urban non-slum levels, going over and above the traditional rural-urban dichotomy presented in most human development reports. Our findings show without a doubt that "where we live matters" when it comes to health, education and employment.

The findings unfold an urban reality where slum dwellers are more likely to die earlier, experience more hunger, have less education, and fewer chances of employment in the formal sector than the rest of the urban population. These differences are directly attributed to poor living conditions in slums, which expose people, women and children in particular, to a host of environmental and health hazards.

The report also shows remarkable similarities between slums and rural areas. For instance, child malnutrition among slum children in India is as high as among rural children. And in many sub-Saharan African cities, children living in slums are more likely to die from water-borne and respiratory illnesses than rural children. In terms of employment, studies in both developed and developing countries show that one's physical address can impact one's ability to get a job. In both Rio de Janeiro and Paris, studies have shown that people living in deprived neighbourhoods were less likely to be called for interviews than those who lived in better-serviced parts of the city.

The report also ranks countries on how well they are performing on the Millennium Development target on improving the lives of slum dwellers. An analysis of the results found some interesting findings. Countries that have managed to reduce slum growth rates and slum populations shared many attributes.

1. Their governments had shown long-term commitment to slum upgrading and prevention.
2. Many had undertaken pro-poor land and housing reforms to improve the tenure of slum dwellers and improve their access to basic services.
3. Most had used domestic resources to scale up improvements and prevent future slum growth.
4. A significant number of countries had put in place policies that emphasized equity in an environment of economic growth.

Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Tunisia are among the countries that have demonstrated that political determination, inclusive upgrading policies, pro-poor reforms, investment in low-cost housing and planning for future urban growth can prevent the proliferation of slums.

But before you all go away thinking that most cities are all doom and gloom, I must re-emphasize the fact cities are good for development. The problem is not urbanization per se, but the inequitable distribution of the opportunities offered by cities and unsustainable practices which are making cities sites of environmental degradation and pollution. Tackling poverty, inequality and unsustainable practices in the world's cities can go a long way in making cities more liveable. We must link the wealth of cities to improved quality of life for poor residents and increased economic and other opportunities. However, unless concerted action is taken to redress urban inequalities and improve the lives of slum dwellers, cities may well become sites of deprivation, social exclusion and instability worldwide.

Thank you.